OCEAN: The Qualification System That Predicts Wins

You’re expected to be a fortune teller.

That’s what forecasting in a startup feels like. Investors, finance, the board, they all want certainty about things that aren’t concrete yet.

Public companies have the systems, data, and history to forecast predictably.
You have… a CRM full of “likely” deals and a team doing their best. 

The only way I’ve ever been able to close that gap is by running deals through tools and frameworks I trust. Without them, forecasting is just guessing with a spreadsheet.

Why the job feels impossible

Every week you’re balancing two realities: 

• External reality: Your number you forecast is public inside the company and possibly to investors.
  Missing it has serious consequences. 

• Internal reality: You know not all the deals in the forecast are going to land. 

But you still have to call the number. 

The reality is that most teams advance deals based on optimism and activity: 

• The AE had a great conversation.

• The buyer “loved” the demo.

• Notes are decent in Salesforce.

• Close date is this quarter. 

It all looks good on the dashboard. It just doesn’t mean the deal will close. (And you know it!)

And when it doesn’t, you’re left explaining why a “sure thing” evaporated. 

The hidden cost of bad qualification

Bad deals in your pipeline don’t just miss. They steal from you: 

• Time you could spend on winnable deals.

• Focus you could give to building new opportunities.

• Credibility with your board and your team. 

The fix is OCEAN

I don’t trust my gut alone to tell me if a deal is real. I run every opportunity through OCEAN.

OCEAN is a five-point qualification framework that makes deal health visible at every stage, from first call to final negotiation. It gives sellers, sales leaders, and founders one shared definition of “qualified," so you’re not arguing about feelings, you’re looking at facts.

OCEAN stands for: 

• O — Opportunity

• C — Champion

• E — Exchange

• A — Approvals

• N — Negotiators 

If a deal is missing one letter, it’s at risk. If it’s missing more than one, it doesn’t belong in commit.

The Five Checkpoints

1) Opportunity:  Is this worth solving now?

A qualified opportunity is tied to a business problem that is urgent, expensive, and has a clear owner who wants it fixed.

If the buyer can ignore it for six months without material impact, your deal is not qualified.

How to qualify O:

• Capture the pain in the buyer’s own words.

• Quantify the impact: revenue, cost, time, or risk.

• Define the gain:  the result they want and when they want it.

Ask:

• “What happens if this doesn’t get fixed?”

• “What’s the cost of waiting?”

• “If we solve this, what changes?”

If you cannot put a number on it using the buyer’s language, you are making a suggestion, not building a business case. And suggestions don’t get funded.

2) Champion:  Who sells for you when you’re not in the room?

Complex B2B decisions are made in conversations you will never attend.
You need someone in those rooms who argues for you like their own reputation depends on it.

A real champion has:

• Stake: personal benefit if the problem is solved.

• Influence: others listen when they speak.

• Authority: they can move resources and secure access.

How to qualify C:

• Test with specific asks that require action:

  • “Will you introduce me to [Economic Buyer] so we can align on outcomes?”

  • “Can you bring procurement in now so we understand their process?”

• Champions act. Contacts advise.

If they will not act, you do not have a Champion.

3) Exchange:  Mutual commitments or it doesn’t count

A deal moves when both sides put something in. If the only investment is coming from your side, you’re doing free consulting.

An exchange can be:

• Time: scheduling the right meetings with the right people.

• People: pulling in stakeholders from finance, procurement, or technical teams.

• Money: allocating budget or pilot funding.

How to qualify E:

• Confirm what the buyer has committed to do next and by when.

• Tie stage progression to verifiable buyer actions, not just seller activity.

Forecasts fail when sales stages advance on “things we did” instead of “commitments they kept.” 
Tip: This is why CRM design is essential if you want to have accurate forecasts as you scale. 

4) Approvals: Map both paths or you’re guessing

There are two paths you must map in detail:

1. Vendor selection: who chooses you and what criteria they use.

2. Procurement:  how that choice turns into a signed contract.

If you cannot name the steps, the owners, and the timing for both, your close date is a guess.

How to qualify A:

• Write out the approvals process with your Champion.

• Reverse engineer the close date by working backward from when they need results live.

• Use a Mutual Action Plan to lock in each step with an owner and a date.

A clean looking deal with no approvals map is a deal waiting to slip.

5) Negotiators:  Procurement + Economic Buyer (EB)

Negotiators are the two roles that control the outcome at the end:

• Economic Buyer: the budget owner who decides if the business result is worth paying for.

• Procurement: the process owner who turns that decision into a PO.

How to qualify N:

1. Name them: get the Economic Buyer and Procurement owner by name and title.

2. Surface their agenda: what result the EB is funding, what process Procurement must follow.

3. Engage before the end: meet the EB to confirm outcomes and budget. Meet Procurement to understand steps, required documents, and lead times.

4. Capture the path: order of operations from decision to Purchase Order (PO).

If you can’t name them, explain their priorities, and describe the path from decision to PO, you are not ready to forecast the deal.

How to Use OCEAN in Your Operating Rhythm

• In discovery: Touch all five letters. Leave knowing which is weakest and how you will fix it.

• After a demo: Re-qualify before advancing the stage. Technical enthusiasm without a champion or approvals path is a mid-funnel trap.

• In pipeline review: Score each letter green (verified), yellow (partial), or red (unknown/blocked). Two or more reds = not forecastable.

What OCEAN Exposes

The patterns are instant:

• Great demo. No Champion.

• Friendly contact. No Exchange.

• Strong interest. Unknown Negotiators.

When you see it, you can fix it, or cut it. Either improves your forecast.

The Takeaway

Forecast accuracy isn’t luck. It’s the result of enforcing a system that surfaces truth early and consistently.

OCEAN is that system. It makes “likely” mean something again. It makes your forecast a number you can stand behind, not just a guess in a nicer font.

Next steps: 

• Download the Pipeline Inspection Checklist and run OCEAN on your top 10 deals this week.

• Book the 14-Day Sales Engine Reset to install OCEAN, tie it to your stage exit criteria, and build a forecast you can defend without crossing your fingers.